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ViewsHerd Immunity & The Coronavirus
Many experts believe that the coronavirus will continue to spread until there is a transmission level of about 50 to 60 percent. Currently, about 3.83 million Americans have the coronavirus out of a total population of about 330 million. This means that the virus could potentially spread until 2021 if it must meet a 50 percent transmission rate. This is a startling but not proven theory among many health care professions about the future of the coronavirus.
On a positive note, we did see a slow down of virus transmission in states like New York that were hot spots earlier in the year. This leads health experts to believe that we may be closer to herd immunity than we think. Since the virus has already moved through these hot spots, the likelihood of herd immunity is possible, which would be welcome news for the upcoming fall and winter seasons.
Studying Antibodies
After COVID-19 cases in hot spots were studied, antibody tests were performed to assess the number of people infected by the disease. In Madrid, Spain, there were positive antibodies collected from about 15 percent of the population. In Sweden, which had no lockdowns, there were positive antibodies collected from about 20 percent of the population. Therefore, the number of antibodies is slightly higher in a place that had less social distancing.
New York City had positive antibodies collected from about 20 percent of the population, however, this was during the height of the virus surge. Since then there has been a steep decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. It is surprising to many health professionals that the number of new coronavirus cases has declined so sharply after having approximately 20 percent of the population infected. This can be explained by the strict social distancing and lockdown measures implemented in the state of New York. Therefore, human behavior has influenced the number of cases and positive antibodies.
Herd Immunity
By studying the number of cases by region and the number of positive antibodies, health experts are starting to think that herd immunity is becoming closer to reality. It is thought that people who have not been exposed to COVID-19 may have certain cells that can fight the virus. This type of herd immunity may have formed from previous exposure to other viruses.
Even though herd immunity may play a role in the future of the coronavirus, health experts still recommend following social distancing guidelines and wearing a mask whenever in public. It is too soon to assess if herd immunity is present in a region, therefore, we must act as if it is not. Until we have more certain confirmation of this immunity, we must remain diligent in our battle against the virus, and continue to study all the information available.
Health professionals hope that other states can mirror the steep decline that has been shown in New York as well as the possibility of herd immunity forming as well. This is certainly our best hope until a therapeutic or proven vaccine is available for Americans to choose from.
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Herd Immunity & The Coronavirus
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Many experts believe that the coronavirus will continue to spread until there is a transmission level of about 50 to 60 percent. Currently, about 3.83 million Americans have the coronavirus out of a total population of 330 million.
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